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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Windows_3.0_workspace.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Apple_Macintosh_Desktop.png
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I've eyed the "electronic book" industry for quite some time. I have an older one (56k modem, etc.) that was about the size of a classroom textbook with a real leather cover. Recently Amazon.com came out with their "Kindle" reader. Not bad, but not really what I was waiting for. The resolution isn't exactly great, so the font is larger to make up for it. And you only get a paperback novel sized page to look at, not a "full page" like many of us are accustomed to reading.
However, the Plastic Logic Reader is a product that may just be what I was thinking about! Fits in my backpack or briefcase, is almost the size of a standard sheet of paper, and can access and download full-page documents (magazines, newspapers, etc.), not just mini-portions of the pages.
There's still some work to be done...crisp color, sharper B&W clarity, etc. Future versions are supposed to be flexible and usable even in bright sunlight. But by all indications, this is a winner. I'll be following their further developments...I think someone might have finally gotten an electronic reader good enough for me to buy one!
(Oct '08)
In 1987 Apple Computer
released the Knowledge Navigator video...a vision of the future for computing,
communicating, and managing personal tasks. It leveraged common technology of
the day, such as video, portable computers, and telephones, and advanced them
approximately 25 years into the future to present a personal knowledge system
based on contemporaneous concepts of where technology might lead. While the technology presented was new, it
was not cutting edge. It used common-to-that-time technological elements and
updated them to appear futuristic, but still in a form that viewers could
relate to. What made the Knowledge Navigator concept enticing was the portrayal
of the seamless integration of technologies...it was more than just disparate
technologies lumped together behind a video screen.
This
paper will look at the original Knowledge Navigator video and will frame the
technologies portrayed, comparing them to what actually came to market. New
technologies developed since 1987 will be considered for implementation within
a current-day personal knowledge system. There are some technologies shown in
the original video that have still not been fully adopted today, such as voice
command and natural language analytics, that will be addressed. Finally, a new vision
of the future of personal knowledge navigators will be presented, analogous to
the futuristic vision provided by Apple's video, but with the realistic horizon
on merely a few years.
With
classical music playing, and in an almost Mediterranean setting, a professor
from Berkeley arrives home, takes off his coat and opens his "personal data
assistant" that is found lying on his desk. "You have three messages..." begins
the digital assistant. Thus begins a forward-looking approach from Apple's Knowledge Navigator vignette communicating their vision for technology,
communications, and productivity.
The Knowledge Navigator
showed a broad set of daily task and cutting-edge technology ideas that were
brought together on a single platform to deal with the challenges of society
after 2010. The Navigator integrated the current technologies of the day
(telephones, printing, etc.) with concepts from the future (collaborative
shared applications, voice commands, etc.) of which most have come to be
standards in society by 2008. The elements which the Navigator brought together
were:
In
1986-1987, during the development of this concept, many of the technologies
described above were available, but were not integrated into PC technology,
such as answering machines and video conferencing. Others were in the
development stages and in limited use, such as touch screens and calendar
software. Some were only in research and development, not commercially
available, such as wireless connectivity and natural language recognition.
Advance the timeline to
2008 and the major elements of the Knowledge Navigator model are divided across
two platforms -- portable computers and smart phones. The iPhone is an ideological
equivalent of the Knowledge Navigator, in that it pushes technology,
communication, and productivity beyond what was available just two years ago.
While there are still elements missing, such as voice command, video
conferencing, and shared applications with non-iPhone and non-Apple technologies,
the iPhone includes many elements of the 1987 Knowledge Navigator, offering a
platform to continue to further integrate technology for the always mobile,
always connected audience.
However,
the limited interface (e.g., small screen, smaller keyboard) of the iPhone is a
potential deterrent to genuine multi-tasking and shared applications as
demonstrated in the original video, not to mention the ergonomics gap when such
small displays and navigation methods aren't suited for all audiences. Thus a
second platform, a tablet-style laptop computer, offers the end-user the
ability to bring together a broader set of tools and software that effectively
provide access to technology that is equal to or even beyond the iPhone's
resemblance to the Knowledge Navigator.
To effectively assemble a Knowledge Navigator, we need to both reassess and critique the assumptions of the 1987 concept. There are several key technology challenges with the Knowledge Navigator that prevent the vision from being fully implemented today. To design a Navigator today that would perfectly replicate the 1987 vision is still a challenge that is being pursued by high tech companies such as Apple as well as start-up firms such as Siri, Inc. and others. Some elements of the Navigator are still worthwhile (voice commands, etc.), while others have possibly been bypassed for newer ideas, such as mobile devices that travel with users everywhere.
As mentioned earlier, the first words of the video, "You have three messages...", set the stage for an audio conversation that was simple, yet extremely sophisticated. Notice in the video (3:10-3:20) that when the professor pauses, the concierge completes his sentence, or earlier (1:47-1:57) when he corrects the professor's naming and pronunciation of an author. Actions like this require very sophisticated audio analytics software, which is not even close to this level of comprehension and capabilities today. But, the more simplistic elements of audio commands and playback are quite feasible with current technology. A product like Dragon Naturally Speaking is a voice-recognition application that is approaching the conversational capabilities alluded to in the video. And while speech commands and playback may appear to be a required element of any Knowledge Navigator device, the practicality of using speech over typing or reading is questionable in many settings (i.e., offices, public transportation, etc.) Voice-based interface technology may still have benefits for those who choose to interact with the device without using a keyboard, such as the physically impaired, those with a need for "hands-free" computing, or those who are multi-tasking away from the chair and keyboard.
Integrated
real-time voice and video, or video-phone, has become a standard technology,
with solutions available from several companies. Solutions in this product
space include popular audio-video software solutions such as Skype and
applications that also tie in shared screens such as Adobe Acrobat Connect
among others. Advances in this space are moving quickly and new players are in
the field almost daily. The challenge to this element of the puzzle is the need
to get disparate technologies to share information effectively with each other.
Web sites and various Internet-available tools provide much of the functionality of the original Navigator. Social bookmarking can be used to track down a professor's latest research, wikis allow for shared document development, and social networking sites provide up-to-date information on peers and colleagues. Some of the technology available from Google, such as Google Earth, can even approach the rainforest and desert modeling as demonstrated in the video. While data-indexing and information search technologies such as Google and Yahoo have made the data location functions described in the Knowledge Navigator more feasible today, this technology does have some limitations that need to be considered. Indexed web searches generally return search results that are relevant to a general audience, not a specific user. While some steps have been made to use search and browsing patterns to make query results more relevant, these innovations have not reached the level of personalization that is reflected in the Knowledge Navigator concept.
Personalization is vital to the effectiveness of the system. When the professor said "Let me see the lecture notes from last semester" (1:05-1:09), the level of personal knowledge the system held was only being hinted at. To effectively assist with the professor's work and personal tasks, it would have to maintain extensive personal data, including finances, medical information, and more. Much of this is possible today using off-the-shelf software for either a computer or an iPhone. For example, the iPhone applications such as Voice Dial, Note to Self, iLoveControls, and Say Where fulfill roles similar to the virtual assistant, while numerous iPhone "App Store" tools gather and maintain other records -- consider PhoneTag for transcribing voicemail, MyGarden to manage a hobby, and HeyTaxi for calling taxi services. These are examples of the current tools that manage personal data that a knowledge navigator would need to reference to fully service the user similar to the video.
It
is feasible to pull together the varied technologies of today onto a tablet
computer or wait for the smart phone manufacturers to offer more features. But
would building a product based strictly on a 1987 vision mean we are delivering
yesterday's solutions tomorrow? Shouldn't the goal be to incorporate the
essence of the Knowledge Navigator with the tools and resources accessible
today to deliver a practical personal knowledge navigator?
Looking at today's technology that the Knowledge Navigator did not address allows us to "upgrade" the 1987 vision of the future to today's norms, specifically in regards to size, connectivity, and replacability.
Cell phone conversations in restrooms and laptops going on vacations are signs that we are becoming an "always-on" society and any new device needs to have an "always there" approach. A laptop may not be the best solution for a true knowledge navigator. Even though it is considerably more portable than a desktop, it may not be accessible enough. As a minimum, a tablet computer is probably the "large format" device of choice with an iPhone or PDA-sized device as the "small format" device.
When a premium is placed on portability, the potential for damage and loss of access becomes a challenge, so everything has to be "maintained" on the Internet with local copies on the portable devices. While local storage is still key, an "always connected" feature enables many of the other features of the navigator while assuring the user of the security of data that is critical to the "always-on" society.
Not only is the device of today pervasive, it also attempts to combine features that will provide users easy access to almost everything he or she can think of, literally right at the palm of the user's hand. Mobile computing includes telephony and other applications such as web browsing, cameras, and even entertainments systems that come in handy for the user to navigate throughout the day.
But
taking it a step further, consumer electronics today are advancing at a frantic
pace. Cell phones that were state-of-the-art just two years ago cannot be
repaired today, so they are discarded and replaced like worn-out socks. Any
device that became a personal knowledge navigator would be antiquated in only a
year or two. This "disposable" model, when combined with the automated backup
features of network-connected devices should allow for instant upgrades of the
systems as well as auto-updates of the applications on these devices.
To only consider today's highly-available technologies does a disservice to the vision of the original Knowledge Navigator. Looking at new advances and new research in the technology industry can help us model where the knowledge navigator might really be by 2010 or 2020.
Consider one of the last things the professor said to the computer (5:02-5:06), "Print this article before I go." The assumption is the computer printed to paper, since it made no reference to any advanced printing capability. Gazing to the future, the print command might be to "plastic paper" or thin "reading tablets" such as those by Plastic Logic, allowing for viewing of data in a larger format without the hassle of paper. Imagine printing dozens of papers to a single sheet of plastic paper for reading at your leisure.
IBM Research recently came up with an invention called the "Meta Pad" which hopes to cater to the future of ubiquitous computing. The Meta Pad is a prototype 9-ounce portable computing device that is the size of a 3-by-5 index card and is 3/4 inch thick. This device may be converted into a handheld, desktop, laptop, tablet or wearable computer. Unlike other handhelds that are out in the market, data and applications are kept in the main device, eliminating the need for synchronizing these with other devices being used. Moreover, the Meta Pad has the capability to run on multiple operating systems.
The Meta Pad is an experiment at IBM that is adding to the researchers' understanding of how humans can better interact with information. This device may serve the purpose of a handheld personal digital assistant, or may be used as a desktop. Advanced speech technology and ink recognition software have also been integrated into the Meta Pad (http://domino.watson.ibm.com/comm/pr.nsf/pages/news 20020206_metapad.html).
Modularizing
the Personal Knowledge Navigator was alluded to earlier in the sense that the
device would have local access to files, but all the resources would be held on
the network. Modularization forms the centerpiece of the solution, but the
features need to go further. Consider the following as a proposed model:
o
Display screen and basic features (e.g.: phone,
web) similar to an iPhone
o
Local storage, but reliant on Internet for backups,
recovery and extended services
o
Integrates with a home telephone system
o
Larger "virtual" portable keyboard available for
the road-warrior
o
When docked at home it can communicate with home
appliances
o
It has GPS, wi-fi, Wi-Wan, Bluetooth, Infrared, and
other communication and proximity protocols
o
Fully functional off-line
The key message for the personal knowledge
navigator of tomorrow is adaptability, portability, modularity and "always on."
Just like Apple's Knowledge Navigator video, it is sometimes best to craft a vision for the future with an example. So this newest vision of the Personal Knowledge Navigator (PKN) might be fully illustrated with a story.
Jane Smith is traveling to meet with a colleague, receiving audio
driving directions from her PKN via her Bluetooth-enabled headset. She spies a
Starbucks on the way and pulls into the parking lot. Her PKN updates its
driving directions and encourages her to get back on the road until it is
notified by the car's computer that the car has been turned off--Jane is
obviously changing her travel plans on-the-fly.
Then the PKN picks up the local Starbucks' WiFi signal. It notifies the barista's PKN that Jane has arrived and also lets Jane know that this coffee shop carries the New York Times newspaper. The barista notices the message from Jane's PKN, which includes info on Jane's purchases over time at all Starbucks. He looks up to greet Jane (who he has never met) with a hearty, "Good morning, Dr. Smith! The usual Caramel Macchiato, or will it be something else this morning?" The PKN suggests to Jane that she consider a low-fat, sugar-free drink, since her most recent medical report indicated that her cholesterol and weight were still not where they needed to be.
After the purchase has been made, the PKN notifies Jane that its proximity software has found her friend Sally Brown's signal also on the Starbucks' LAN, so she may be in the area. The GPS unit has now noticed that Jane has remained within the building for several minutes and reminds her that not only does she have a meeting in 33 minutes, but that she also failed to lock her car doors, so it offers to tell the car to lock the doors and then mentions that to make the scheduled meeting that (based on current traffic reports) she needs to leave Starbucks within the next 10 minutes.
At the end of the day Jane returns home. The PKN opens the garage door, asks Jane to confirm the security code to disable the alarm system, and turns on the lights and her favorite music. Jane then drops the PKN into the charging base, after which it begins to upload the latest patches, office schedules, news of the day and weather forecast for Jane to review in the morning. Still wearing the headset, Jane receives a recommendation that she might consider cooking one of the Lean Cuisine's she purchased at the grocery store last night, since it would help offset the Caramel Macchiato with chocolate sprinkles she ordered today. Later that evening Jane puts the headset on its charging base, so the PKN activates Jane's watch alarm to notify her of the next scheduled event, knowing she's not carrying the PKN unit or headset.
So, how far away are we from this vision of the future? Probably by the time you replace your next cell phone!
The
Knowledge Navigator was the 1987 vision of computing, communicating, and
managing personal tasks twenty-five years into the future. By 2008, many of the
features of this device have come of age. While there are features of the
Knowledge Navigator that are still worth exploring and implementing, the
technologies currently available to users have even surpassed the features that
were envisioned at that time. The features of the PKN are presently found in
two platforms; laptops and smart phones.
Although
voice-recognition software applications are available on the market, the
advanced voice analytics feature of the Knowledge Navigator has yet to come to
fruition. However, the question of the practicality of voice command over
typing and reading is open to debate. While voice commands may be useful to
some segments, the function does not eliminate the need for typing and reading for
most practical purposes.
Real-time
voice and video conferencing are now technology standards and provide
cost-effective solutions. The current challenge is how to make varying
technologies share information effectively. Aside from real-time voice and
video conferencing, data-indexing and information search technology functions
suggested by the Knowledge Navigator are also readily available. These
technologies though, will have to be further improved to reach the level of personalization
provided by the Knowledge Navigator.
The
Knowledge Navigator of today requires an efficient design in regards to size,
connectivity, and replaceability to cater to the demands of a mobile and
ubiquitous computing environment. Moreover, the Knowledge Navigator concept can
be further stretched to decipher how humans can better interact with
technologies tomorrow, thereby having providing visionary services to the likes
of Jane Smith.